For lenders planning for 2027, the latest forecasts offer a reason to be measured about expectations. October projections from the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae point to a market where purchase lending holds relatively steady, while higher mortgage rates weigh on refinance activity and overall volume.
These forecasts will change as economic conditions evolve. For now, they provide a useful starting point for deciding where to focus business development, borrower education, and operational resources.
Mortgage Rates Remain a Major Variable
MBA expects the average 30-year mortgage rate to remain above 7% through 2027. Its October outlook identifies persistent inflation, elevated Treasury yields, and government borrowing as pressures keeping rates higher.
That outlook makes a business plan dependent on substantial rate relief harder to justify. Loan officers can prepare for opportunities when pricing improves while continuing to serve borrowers whose decisions are driven by relocation, family needs, or other changes in circumstances.
Borrower communication matters here. A forecast can provide context, but it cannot tell an individual buyer when the right opportunity will arrive. Conversations should stay grounded in current financing options, the borrower’s goals, and what fits their budget today.
Purchase Lending Provides a More Stable Foundation
MBA forecasts purchase originations of approximately $1.42 trillion in 2027, up 0.8% from its estimate for 2026. Meanwhile, it expects refinance originations to decline 17% to $571 billion.
The implication for business planning is straightforward: purchase relationships deserve sustained attention.
For loan officers, that means reviewing the sources of their purchase business and identifying where those relationships need work. Which real estate partners consistently introduce qualified buyers? Which prospective borrowers postponed a purchase but still have a reason to move? Where could better education help someone understand their options?
Those questions can guide a more practical growth plan than assuming a broad increase in market activity will generate business.
Home Sales Are Forecast to Improve Only Modestly
Fannie Mae’s October forecast projects approximately 4.71 million total home sales in 2027, a 0.9% increase from its 2026 estimate. That suggests limited improvement in transaction activity at the national level.
For lenders, modest projected growth makes local market knowledge especially useful. National forecasts provide a planning baseline, but loan officers should also track the conditions affecting their own borrowers: available homes, price ranges, time on market, and opportunities for negotiation.
Working closely with real estate partners can help turn those observations into relevant borrower conversations. Specific information about a buyer’s market and price range is more useful than a general prediction about where housing is headed.
Refinance Opportunities Will Require Selectivity
Fannie Mae also anticipates a smaller refinance market, projecting $430 billion in refinance originations for 2027 compared with an estimated $655 billion in 2026. Although its estimate differs from MBA’s, both forecasts point toward lower refinance volume.
That makes it sensible to build refinance outreach around individual circumstances. A borrower’s existing rate, remaining loan term, closing costs, and expected time in the home all affect whether a new loan would serve their goals.
Keeping accurate records and maintaining contact after closing gives loan officers a stronger starting point for those reviews. The purpose is to identify a meaningful benefit and explain the tradeoffs clearly.
Build a Plan That Can Adjust
The latest outlook favors disciplined planning: realistic production assumptions, consistent purchase business development, and a process for responding when borrower opportunities emerge.
Lenders should revisit those assumptions as new forecasts and local data become available. Loan officers can support that effort by keeping their databases current, recording changes in borrower plans, and following through on conversations already underway.
Heading into 2027, the most useful question is where your business can improve under the conditions currently forecast. That gives your team something concrete to act on while leaving room to adjust as the year develops.
Forecasts cited reflect October 2026 releases and are subject to change.
